As the US economy recovers, Barraud sees much uncertainty that could lead to a correction — meaning a drop of 10% or more — for stocks from August to November. This would thwart the market's recent momentum — the S&P 500 just posted its best quarter since 1998 and the Dow Jones industrial average had its best quarter since 1987.
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He also said that market structure has changed, with some of the rebound in the second quarter driven by heavy buying by retail investors, hedge funds, and commodity trading advisers.
But that could change, he said. Market focus could shift in August and start looking more closely at the presidential election, and what that means in terms of fiscal policy, trade policy, and more. That could lead people to take some profits, and market structure might revert back to what it looked like before coronavirus, Barraud said.
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